Soft Falling Rain strongly fancied for Nayef Joel Stakes

Soft Falling Rain wins the Godolphin Mile on Dubai World Cup Night in March this year with Paul Hanagan in the saddle, as he will be on Friday. Image courtesy of racingfotos.com.

It’s the last Series race on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile on Friday before the eagerly anticipated finale on QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot on 19 October.

Seven runners have been declared for the Nayef Joel Stakes, the penultimate race in the Mile division, headed by last year’s winner, Penitent, Soft Falling Rain and Montiridge.

Whichever way you look at the race, it is hard to see beyond two horses – Soft Falling Rain and Montiridge.

They are likely to dominate the market in the seven-runner field despite the presence of Penitent.

He would have a definite chance of recording back-to-back successes if any rain falls, but based on the latest weather forecast that is unlikely and the soft ground-lover may be a non-runner if the going is deemed too quick for him on Friday by trainer David O’Meara.

Soft Falling Rain is very highly regarded by his trainer, South African Mike De Kock, who flew back to the UK this week to supervise his final preparations.

He was unbeaten in seven starts, including three comfortable victories in Dubai early in the year, before running second to Gregorian in the seven-furlong Hungerford Stakes at Newbury.

That was his first start for four and a half months and he needed it – he will be much fitter on Friday as he builds up for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, the mile finale on QIPCO British Champions Day.

He looks to be the one to beat, especially as De Kock knows what it takes to win the Nayef Joel Stakes having saddled the high-class Eagle Mountain to win it in 2008.

Montiridge will be no pushover, however, as they are both officially rated 115.

He won nice races on Newmarket’s July Course and at Glorious Goodwood before flopping when odds-on favourite at Haydock Park last time.

He was found to be sick afterwards, but is reported to be back to his best now.

With the ground looking against Penitent (who is also rated 115 and so would have every chance if some rain fell), Glory Awaits is one of the most interesting opponents for the big two.

He ran a blinder when second, albeit beaten five lengths by Dawn Approach, in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas, so we know that he appreciates the Rowley Mile.

He ran a similar race in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and then appeared not to handle Goodwood when comfortably beaten by Montiridge.

Rested since then, he could be ready to run a big race.

Guest Of Honour also rates a threat. An improving four-year-old, he is well-regarded in the Marco Botti stable and a stiff mile on quickish ground will be ideal for him.

He has decent form over a mile in this country this year and on official ratings has just three pounds to find with the big two.

He had a fruitless trip to Chicago for the Arlington Million over a mile and a quarter in August, but has been freshened up since then and could go well.

Premio Loco is nine-years-old and while he remains consistent, he has a lot to find, as does Boom And Bust.