Timeform Sectional Debrief: Investec Derby Festival

He had to be supplemented late on, and he had to negotiate one or two difficulties in the race itself, but in the end we got a golden horse for a golden occasion.

Golden Horn goes into the record books as the winner of the 2015 Investec Derby, and he deserves to be regarded as one of the best ones in recent years. If there is any doubt about that, the clock provides compelling evidence to support that assertion.

Golden Horn was, by some way, quickest of the three winners on the card at Epsom’s one mile, four furlongs and 10 yards; his Derby-winning time has been surpassed by only two other horses in the race’s history; he was also notably quicker, in relative terms, than winners at other distances on the day; by the line, he had got his rivals well strung out.

Once you crunch the numbers – taking into account ground that had quickened to “good to firm” due to sun and a drying wind – a time-based figure comfortably in advance of the 126 for an average Derby winner on form looks entirely justified.

A fast time was facilitated by a fast pace – Hans Holbein and Elm Park ran the opening half a mile quicker than any other horses in the race in recent times – and a patient ride from Frankie Dettori. In the end, Golden Horn was able to show a telling turn of foot when it mattered and just when that early pace was taking its toll on others.

Par finishing speed % (a horse’s closing speed compared to its average race speed) is around 111 for Epsom’s undulating and twisting mile and a half, which features a drop of about 50 feet from the sectional entering the straight. It can be seen that the majority of the field were slower than that, as their earlier exertions told, but Jack Hobbs was almost bang on par and Golden Horn was quicker than it.

Using the methodology explained in Sectional Timing: An Introduction by Timeform, Golden Horn gets a 2 lb upgrade for coming home so quickly, while Hans Holbein, Elm Park and Success Days get bigger mark-ups further back for doing the opposite.

There is, however, no doubt in terms of sectionals that the best horse won the 2015 Investec Derby and only a little doubt, on account of the effects of that gruelling earlier pace, about the precise pecking order behind the first two.

Golden Horn has been a special horse for timing enthusiasts from the outset. His sectionals on his debut at Nottingham, where he beat The Derby third Storm The Stars incidentally, were so good that Timeform rated him at least listed class straight away.

He was top-rated by Timeform, while other handicapping authorities had him bottom-rated, for his reappearance in a listed race at Newmarket, and he then took things onto a different level with his defeat of Jack Hobbs and Elm Park in a well-run Dante Stakes at York. Anyone looking for an example of how time and sectional analysis work in unison and should not be ignored could hardly do better.

Golden Horn remains unbeaten, and it will take a very good horse to lower his colours. There are a few very good horses around, of course, such as the French mare Treve. What Golden Horn has in his favour, in addition to top-class ability of course, is that he seems a very straightforward ride, and he seems likely to be as good returned to ten furlongs (granted a good pace) as at this twelve.

His performance lit up Epsom on Saturday, and his presence looks like lighting up the remainder of the British Flat season.

Investec Coronation Cup

The Investec Coronation Cup – also part of the QIPCO British Champions Middle-Distance Series – attracted just four runners, but two of them were top-class, in Dolniya and Flintshire.

In the event, they were turned over in a rather tactical affair by the 11/1 shot Pether’s Moon. The first three all came home more quickly than Golden Horn did 80 minutes later, having got to the home straight a good deal slower.

In such circumstances, there can be a tendency to sprint for home a bit too soon, and that is possibly what happened here. By-furlong sectionals of less than 11 seconds from three furlongs out to one furlong out from front-running Dolniya saw her one-paced as she hit the slight rise near the finish, at which point Pether’s Moon swept by.

Pether’s Moon is a pretty good horse, and if this result flatters him then it is not by much. But time and sectional analysis confirm that the 2015 Investec Coronation Cup was run at an uneven pace, and it is not a race to place maximum store by. 

Investec Oaks

There is an understandable tendency to write off races won by unconsidered outsiders as “flukes”, but there are good reasons not to do so with this year’s Investec-sponsored Oaks at Epsom.

At 50/1, Qualify was the co-longest-priced winner in the classic’s 237-year history, and she would have gone off even bigger but for support from some shrewdies who saw something in her form that most of us did not see.

Three successive unplaced runs going into the race were preceded by a Group 3 win as a two-year-old. Recapturing that form would not be enough, but improving upon it by a few lengths at the much longer distance of The Oaks proved to be sufficient. Just.

Sectional analysis shows that the 2015 Investec Oaks – part of the Fillies and Mares category of the QIPCO British Champion Series – was not the most truly-run race, but that the best two fillies probably came to the fore.

The opening stages of the race were on the steady side. The leader got to the path at the end of the gruelling first half mile after about 58.9s when 58.0s would have been par given the conditions (a difference of about six lengths).

Thereafter, however, the pace was truer. Those finishing speed %s (horse’s closing speed compared to its average speed for race overall) from the crossing entering the straight may seem remarkably high, but they should be viewed in the context of Epsom’s roller-coaster course and a largely downhill finish.

Par for a mile and a half at Epsom is around 111%. The principals finished quicker than that, but not by a great deal, and the sectional upgrades are of a few pounds rather than more. Qualify and Legatissimo finished fastest of all and get the biggest mark-ups.

In that particular context The Investec Oaks of 2015 produced the “right” result, however unexpected it might have been, but sectionals should be one part of race analysis (an important part), not the final word.

It was a rough race in the home straight, and a number of the runners were better than the result, if probably not greatly so. Fillies like Jack Naylor and Star of Seville might not have stayed; Crystal Zvezda gave herself little chance by pulling hard in that steady early section; Jazzi Top was always up against it after a slow start.

Qualify’s calculated closing sectional of 38.87s is one of the faster ones among Oaks winners: fractionally faster than Taghrooda’s 38.95s a year before but comfortably slower than Dancing Rain’s 37.7s in 2011 (a notably tactical race which turned into a sprint). Kazzia ran as slowly as 45.8s in a soft-ground Oaks in 2002. 

Qualify’s overall and sectional times are indicative of a smart filly, showing sustained speed, but it also reflects the state of the ground, which, by Timeform’s reckoning, was near-perfect (once allowance has been made for a small amount of dolling out to the course). 

The Investec Derby is to be run on the inner line, without the additional 14 yards of the Investec Oaks that might have made the difference between Qualify’s success and Legatissimo’s short-head defeat. Barring rain, conditions should dry out in the 24 hourse between the two races.

A time 2 to 3 seconds faster than Qualify’s 2min 37.41s seems on the cards for the colts, but that will depend in no small part on how quickly they go. Timeform’s Sectional Debrief will be back with a full analysis of the great race after the event.