Dawn Approach and Toronado head QIPCO Sussex Stakes septet

Just a short-head separated Dawn Approach and Toronado at the line at Royal Ascot. Image courtesy of racingfotos.com.

Seven horses have been declared for a cracking QIPCO Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood on Wednesday including the big two, all set for their third encounter, Dawn Apporach and Toronado.

Two of the seven are pacemakers (Leitir Mor for Dawn Approach and Reply for Declaration Of War), so there are really only five horses to focus on.

Trainer Jim Bolger said on Saturday that Dawn Approach is in “mighty awesome form”.

He has beaten his big rival, Toronado, twice – easily in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas when Toronado had a breathing problem and by a whisker in the St James’s Palace Stakes.

That run was just 10 days after Dawn Approach’s Investec Derby flop, however – Dawn Approach’s one and only defeat when a slow pace over the mile and a half trip found him out – and there is every reason to expect a better display from him on Wednesday now he’s had over a month to regroup at home.

The Hannon team are equally happy with Toronado, but if Dawn Approach has improved, then it’s not easy to see Toronado turning the form around.

There is, however, every prospect that they will finish first and second again as Goodwood gears up foor another "Duel on the Downs".

Gregorian and Trade Storm are both solid and fairly reliable horses, but there is a gulf in class between them and their top class rivals and with each having already had at least three runs this season, it’s hard to see them improving enough to take a hand in the finish. 

The danger to the big two – if there is one – is surely Declaration Of War.

He was impressive in Royal Ascot’s top-level mile race for older horses, the Queen Anne Stakes (when he comfortably beat Gregorian and Trade Storm).

However, Declaration Of War’s win was rated about four lengths inferior to Dawn Approach and Toronado in the St James’s Palace Stakes by the official handicapper and that is a lot to make up.

He stepped up to a mile and a quarter next time in the Coral-Eclipse and ran well to finish second to Al Kazeem, but on his trainer’s comments, Wednesday’s mile looks like his best trip and Goodwood’s easy track might just suit his running style.

This century eight of the 13 winners have been three-year-olds, including four of the last five, and seven of the 13 favourites or joint-favourites have won, including the last five.

Can Dawn Apporach make it six favourites in a row?

It promises to be a scintillating race so make sure you either get along to Goodwood if you can or tune in on Channel 4 at 3.05pm to witness something special!